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Causal-set counts and dimensionless constants

Status
Propositions 1 to 3 and 5, Lemma 1 and Corollary 1 are proved for Poisson sprinklings (Proposition 1 with the literature's Einstein–Hilbert coefficient); Theorem 1 for metrics conformal to a static one with round spatial sections, d ≥ 3; Proposition 4 over the rationals. Variances are Monte Carlo values; the vacuum-energy comparison is an estimate under a stated rule.
Excludes
A Newton constant or an entropy unit per horizon molecule fixed by the Poisson means when the coupling, the unit and the weight normalisation are free; a universal squared-mean-to-variance ratio over exact weightings; a volume term in the mean horizon count of conformally static backgrounds; a transcendental Gram entry of a rigid rational configuration.
Revised

A Poisson sprinkling has one length, the discreteness length ℓρ=ρ−1/d\ell_\rho=\rho^{-1/d}. Do the means and variances of counts built on it fix a dimensionless constant? We consider the causal-set action, a sum over pairs of points weighted by the number of points between them, and the horizon count, a sum over pairs straddling a horizon weighted by the number of points in the future of the lower one. Both means are linear in the weights, so the Newton constant in units of ℓρ\ell_\rho appears only with a free coupling, and the entropy per horizon molecule only with the weight normalisation if the count carries no entropy unit of its own (Proposition 1). The squared mean per unit area divided by the variance per unit area has no upper bound over weightings that give the area law exactly (Proposition 3). In backgrounds conformal to a static metric with round spatial sections the mean horizon count has no term proportional to a volume (Theorem 1).

The free coupling is λ=(ℓρ/ℓp)2\lambda=(\ell_\rho/\ell_p)^2 in the action of Benincasa and Dowker [BD], and the cutoff dependence of the area coefficient of an entropy, together with the renormalisation of Newton’s constant, is known from entanglement entropy [Susskind–Uglum]. Horizon molecules and their area law are due to [Barton et al.]. The kernels with extra Mellin zeros are those of Boundary and corner terms of the causal-set action and the exact weights those of Horizon counts: which weights give the area law. Ahmed, Dodelson, Greene and Sorkin [Ahmed et al.] obtain a fluctuating cosmological constant of the observed order from the fluctuation of the number of points in a sprinkling, and section 6 replaces that number by the horizon count. The result not contained in these references is the unbounded variance ratio, Proposition 3 with the finite variance constant of Lemma 1. Section 5 concerns a different source of numbers: a finite rigid configuration defined over the rationals has algebraic Gram entries, and the nonzero rapidities and angles between its unit vectors are then transcendental under the conditions of Proposition 4(b); volumes and other integrals of the configuration are not constrained by the proposition.

1. The counts

A Poisson sprinkling of density ρ\rho into a dd-dimensional spacetime is a Poisson point process with intensity ρ\rho times the volume, ordered by the causal relation ≺\prec. The multivariate Mecke equation [Last] says that the expectation of a sum over kk-tuples of distinct points equals the integral over the positions of the tuple of the expectation, with the process in the integrand replaced by the process plus the tuple. All statements concern means and variances of the counts below.

The layer action

In four dimensions let NN be the number of points and NkN_k the number of pairs ζ≺q\zeta\prec q with exactly kk points between them. A layer action is

S=λ κ[b N+∑kckNk],λ=(ℓρℓp)2,κ=46,ℓp2=8πG,(1)S=\lambda\,\kappa\Big[b\,N+\sum_kc_kN_k\Big],\qquad\lambda=\Big(\frac{\ell_\rho}{\ell_p}\Big)^2,\quad\kappa=\frac4{\sqrt6},\quad\ell_p^2=8\pi G, \tag{1}

with real bb and ckc_k. The kernel f(v)=e−v∑kckvk/k!f(v)=e^{-v}\sum_kc_kv^k/k! has the Mellin symbol Q(s)=∑kck(s)k/k!Q(s)=\sum_kc_k(s)_k/k!, where (s)k=s(s+1)⋯(s+k−1)(s)_k=s(s+1)\cdots(s+k-1) and Γ(s)Q(s)=∫0∞f(v)vs−1dv\Gamma(s)Q(s)=\int_0^\infty f(v)v^{s-1}dv. The Benincasa–Dowker action has b=1b=1, c=(−1,9,−16,8)c=(-1,9,-16,8) and QBD(s)=13(2s−1)(s−1)(2s−3)Q_{\rm BD}(s)=\tfrac13(2s-1)(s-1)(2s-3). These are the negatives of the weights −1-1 on the point itself and (1,−9,16,−8)(1,-9,16,-8) on the layers of the Benincasa–Dowker d’Alembertian, which the pages on mixed-Poisson and signed substrates and on kernel-scale kinematics of a single realisation use, and which are those of the Remark on the causal-set d’Alembertian in horizon counts and the area law; the symbol printed there for those operator weights is −QBD-Q_{\rm BD} in the notation of this page. For the Benincasa–Dowker weights their Mellin transform, which contains the factor Γ(s)\Gamma(s), equals −Γ(s)QBD(s)-\Gamma(s)Q_{\rm BD}(s).

The mean of SS tends to a multiple of the Einstein–Hilbert action when Q(12)=Q(1)=Q(32)=0Q(\tfrac12)=Q(1)=Q(\tfrac32)=0 and b=−3Q′(1)b=-3Q'(1); these are the conditions (K1)–(K3) of boundary and corner terms. That page also imposes Q(54)=0Q(\tfrac54)=0 to remove a divergence at timelike boundaries. The Benincasa–Dowker symbol has QBD(54)=−116Q_{\rm BD}(\tfrac54)=-\tfrac1{16}, and the extra zero is not used below.

Horizon molecules

Let Σ\Sigma be a spacelike slice, B⊂ΣB\subset\Sigma a geodesic ball, oo the top tip of the domain of dependence of BB, and n=d−1n=d-1. The horizon is the part of ∂I−(o)\partial I^-(o) below Σ\Sigma, and P=I−(o)∩I−(Σ)P=I^-(o)\cap I^-(\Sigma) is the region inside it. For a point ζ∈P\zeta\in P let F(ζ)F(\zeta) be the set of sprinkled points in the causal future of ζ\zeta and the past of Σ\Sigma. A horizon molecule is a pair ζ≺q\zeta\prec q with ζ∈P\zeta\in P and q∈F(ζ)∖Pq\in F(\zeta)\setminus P, and its type is m=∣F(ζ)∣−1m=\lvert F(\zeta)\rvert-1, the number of points of F(ζ)F(\zeta) other than qq, wherever they lie. A molecule of type 00 is a link across the horizon. In two dimensions, with Σ={t=0}\Sigma=\{t=0\} and the horizon along t+z=0t+z=0, a molecule is a related pair with the lower point under the null line t+z=0t+z=0 and the upper point above it, both below t=0t=0, and its type counts the further points in the future of the lower point below t=0t=0. With weights w0,…,wmˉw_0,\dots,w_{\bar m} the weighted count is Hw=∑mwmHmH_w=\sum_mw_mH_m, HmH_m being the number of molecules of type mm, and the Mellin symbol of the weighting is Qw(α)=∑mwm(α)m/m!Q_w(\alpha)=\sum_mw_m(\alpha)_m/m!.

The expected count depends on the weights only through QwQ_w. In a conformally static background (section 6) the term of the expansion in the curvature and in the size of the ball that carries the density ρ2−β\rho^{2-\beta} is multiplied by Qw(β)Q_w(\beta). The leading flat-space term sits at the area exponent αA=1+2/d\alpha_A=1+2/d, and for a flat ball of radius ℓ\ell

⟨Hw⟩=ad Qw(αA) ∣∂B∣+∑j=1d−2Cj Qw(αA+jd) ℓ d−2−j,ad=ωd(d+1)(dω)αAΓ(αA),(2)\langle H_w\rangle=a_d\,Q_w(\alpha_A)\,\lvert\partial B\rvert+\sum_{j=1}^{d-2}C_j\,Q_w\big(\alpha_A+\tfrac jd\big)\,\ell^{\,d-2-j},\qquad a_d=\frac{\omega}{d(d+1)}\Big(\frac d\omega\Big)^{\alpha_A}\Gamma(\alpha_A), \tag{2}

with constants CjC_j and ω\omega the volume of the unit nn-ball; a4=3/10a_4=\sqrt3/10 and a2=1/3a_2=1/3. In d=2d=2 the formula is the count per horizon point and ∣∂B∣\lvert\partial B\rvert is replaced by 11. A weighting with Qw(αA)≠0Q_w(\alpha_A)\neq0 and Qw(αA+j/d)=0Q_w(\alpha_A+j/d)=0 for j=1,…,dj=1,\dots,d is an exact weighting; it may have finite support or, like the thinned weights (5) below, infinite support with convergent sums. For it the flat count is exactly adQw(αA)∣∂B∣a_dQ_w(\alpha_A)\lvert\partial B\rvert at every ball size, and the first-order response to uniform curvature has the form of the area response. The exact weighting of lowest finite degree is unique up to normalisation, with Qd(α)=(2d+2−dαd)Q_d(\alpha)=\binom{2d+2-d\alpha}{d}, and in four dimensions its weights are (210,−791,1268,−928,256)(210,-791,1268,-928,256). These statements are Proposition 1 and Theorem 2 of horizon counts and the area law, proved there for d≥3d\ge3; the converse, that the zeros are necessary, is proved there for 3≤d≤123\le d\le12. In d=2d=2 the same formulas are used below as definitions.

2. The action and the entropy: only a product is fixed

The conclusions of this section assume (H1) that the count HwH_w contains no entropy unit, so that the constant s0s_0 in the horizon entropy Shor=s0HwS_{\rm hor}=s_0H_w is not determined by the sprinkling, and (H2) that the normalisation of a weighting is a convention, so that ww and μw\mu w with μ>0\mu>0 describe the same functional in different units. An intrinsic unit for weighted molecules would remove the conclusion; we do not address whether a signed count can be an entropy.

Proposition 1 (homogeneity). Consider the layer action (1) with a kernel satisfying (K1)–(K3), and put θQ=32Q′(32)\theta_Q=\tfrac32Q'(\tfrac32), so that θQ=1\theta_Q=1 for Benincasa–Dowker.

(a) The conditions (K1)–(K3), and the ratio of any two coefficients of the large-density expansion of ⟨S⟩\langle S\rangle (for instance a corner value divided by the Einstein–Hilbert coefficient), are unchanged by (b,ck)→μ(b,ck)(b,c_k)\to\mu(b,c_k) and by λ→σλ\lambda\to\sigma\lambda for μ,σ>0\mu,\sigma>0.

(b) The coefficient of 12∫R−g\tfrac12\int R\sqrt{-g} in the limit of ⟨S⟩\langle S\rangle is 1/(8πG)1/(8\pi G) and

Gℓρ2=18π λ θQ,(3)\frac G{\ell_\rho^2}=\frac1{8\pi\,\lambda\,\theta_Q}, \tag{3}

which changes by μ−1\mu^{-1} under the first rescaling and by σ−1\sigma^{-1} under the second. The conditions in (a) therefore do not determine G/ℓρ2G/\ell_\rho^2.

(c) Take d=4d=4. The area law Shor=∣∂B∣/4GS_{\rm hor}=\lvert\partial B\rvert/4G for Shor=s0HwS_{\rm hor}=s_0H_w gives 1/(4G)=s0a4Qw(αA)ℓρ−21/(4G)=s_0a_4Q_w(\alpha_A)\ell_\rho^{-2}, in which only the product s0Qw(αA)s_0Q_w(\alpha_A) appears. Requiring this GG to equal the one in (3) gives

s0 Qw(αA)=2πa4 λθQ=20π3 λθQ=36.276 λθQ,(4)s_0\,Q_w(\alpha_A)=\frac{2\pi}{a_4}\,\lambda\theta_Q=\frac{20\pi}{\sqrt3}\,\lambda\theta_Q=36.276\,\lambda\theta_Q, \tag{4}

a single relation between the free quantities s0Qw(αA)s_0Q_w(\alpha_A) and λθQ\lambda\theta_Q.

The proposition is bookkeeping. The mean of the action is linear in (b,ck)(b,c_k) and each condition of (K1)–(K3) is either a zero of QQ or a ratio (b=−3Q′(1)b=-3Q'(1)), so a common factor drops out of all of them while the overall size of the kernel remains free.

Proof. (a) By the Mecke equation ⟨N⟩=ρ Vol\langle N\rangle=\rho\,{\rm Vol} and ⟨Nk⟩=ρ2∬(ρVζq)ke−ρVζq/k!\langle N_k\rangle=\rho^2\iint(\rho V_{\zeta q})^ke^{-\rho V_{\zeta q}}/k!, so ⟨S⟩\langle S\rangle is linear in λ⋅(b,ck)\lambda\cdot(b,c_k). Zeros of QQ and the relation b=−3Q′(1)b=-3Q'(1) are unchanged by Q→μQQ\to\mu Q, and a ratio of coefficients is unchanged because numerator and denominator scale alike. (b) Aslanbeigi, Saravani and Sorkin [ASS] show that for kernels with (K1)–(K3) the coefficient of the Einstein–Hilbert term is proportional to Q′(32)Q'(\tfrac32), and Belenchia [Belenchia] extends the curvature limit to the whole family. For Benincasa–Dowker the mean tends to 12∫R−g/ℓp2=λ 12∫R−g/ℓρ2\tfrac12\int R\sqrt{-g}/\ell_p^2=\lambda\,\tfrac12\int R\sqrt{-g}/\ell_\rho^2 [BD], and QBD′(32)=23Q'_{\rm BD}(\tfrac32)=\tfrac23, so the proportionality constant is fixed by θQ=1\theta_Q=1 there. With ℓp2=8πG\ell_p^2=8\pi G the coefficient of 12∫R−g\tfrac12\int R\sqrt{-g} is 1/(8πG)=λθQ/ℓρ21/(8\pi G)=\lambda\theta_Q/\ell_\rho^2, which is (3). (c) By (2), ⟨Hw⟩=adQw(αA)∣∂B∣ρ(d−2)/d\langle H_w\rangle=a_dQ_w(\alpha_A)\lvert\partial B\rvert\rho^{(d-2)/d} at leading order, linear in ww, which gives the first statement. Equating 1/(4G)=2πλθQ/ℓρ21/(4G)=2\pi\lambda\theta_Q/\ell_\rho^2 from (3) with s0a4Qw(αA)/ℓρ2s_0a_4Q_w(\alpha_A)/\ell_\rho^2 gives (4).

The factor 2π2\pi in (4) comes from the normalisations 1/(8πG)1/(8\pi G) of the Einstein–Hilbert coefficient and 1/(4G)1/(4G) of the area law, and it relates the two free quantities. The area law with GG the coefficient of 12∫R\tfrac12\int R holds for every λ\lambda once s0s_0 is chosen by (4).

As an example, suppose one postulates s0=ln⁡2s_0=\ln2 with Qw(αA)=θQ=1Q_w(\alpha_A)=\theta_Q=1 (one bit per unit of weighted count). Then (4) gives λ=s0a4/2π=0.0191\lambda=s_0a_4/2\pi=0.0191 and G/ℓρ2=1/(4a4s0)=2.082G/\ell_\rho^2=1/(4a_4s_0)=2.082, that is ℓρ≈0.69G\ell_\rho\approx0.69\sqrt G. Any other postulated s0s_0 gives another value.

Two routes lie outside (H1) and (H2). The entropy of the short-distance fields could supply an absolute unit, as in induced-gravity pictures where the area coefficient and 1/G1/G renormalise together [Susskind–Uglum]; the induced Newton constant discusses their scheme dependence. A dynamical selection of λ\lambda, for example a critical value in a path integral over causal sets, is a question about dynamics that the kernel family does not address.

3. Weightings fixed by interpolation conditions

The exact weights of section 1 are fixed by a normalisation and a list of zeros. We call a weighting interpolating if its symbol is fixed by conditions of this type: Q(t)=1Q(t)=1 at one exponent tt and zeros at the other points of a set S\mathcal S of exponents.

Proposition 2 (interpolating weightings are Lagrange polynomials). Let S\mathcal S be a finite set of J+1J+1 distinct real numbers and t∈St\in\mathcal S. The weightings ww of degree at most mˉ\bar m with Qw(t)=1Q_w(t)=1 and Qw(s)=0Q_w(s)=0 for s∈S∖{t}s\in\mathcal S\setminus\{t\} form an affine space of dimension mˉ−J\bar m-J if mˉ≥J\bar m\ge J and are empty if mˉ<J\bar m<J. For mˉ=J\bar m=J there is exactly one, with Qw=Πt,SQ_w=\Pi_{t,\mathcal S}, the Lagrange basis polynomial of the node set S\mathcal S at tt.

Proof. The map w↦Qww\mapsto Q_w is a linear bijection from weightings of degree at most mˉ\bar m onto polynomials of degree at most mˉ\bar m, because (s)m/m!(s)_m/m! has degree exactly mm. The conditions prescribe the values of QQ at J+1J+1 distinct nodes. For mˉ=J\bar m=J polynomial interpolation gives a unique solution. For mˉ>J\bar m>J the solutions form a coset of the space of polynomials of degree at most mˉ\bar m vanishing at all nodes, of dimension mˉ−J\bar m-J. For mˉ<J\bar m<J a nonzero polynomial of degree at most mˉ\bar m cannot have JJ zeros, so the only candidate is 00, which fails the normalisation.

For the horizon count in d=4d=4, S={32,74,2,94,52}\mathcal S=\{\tfrac32,\tfrac74,2,\tfrac94,\tfrac52\} and t=32t=\tfrac32 give the integer weights (210,−791,1268,−928,256)(210,-791,1268,-928,256) of section 1. Adding the nodes 114\tfrac{11}4 and 33 gives the next member of the tower (see horizon counts and the area law).

Corollary 1 (no relation between interpolating functionals from first moments). Let Ψ1,Ψ2,…\Psi_1,\Psi_2,\dots be finitely many first-moment functionals of interpolating weightings, each identified with a physical quantity Xi=ui⟨Ψi⟩X_i=u_i\langle\Psi_i\rangle with a unit uiu_i. By (H2) the normalisations Qwi(ti)=1Q_{w_i}(t_i)=1 are conventions. The zero conditions that remain are invariant under wi→μiwiw_i\to\mu_iw_i with independent μi>0\mu_i>0, and ⟨Ψi⟩\langle\Psi_i\rangle is linear in wiw_i. The units uiu_i are therefore independent free parameters, and no relation among the XiX_i (for instance a value of X1/X2X_1/X_2) follows from the conditions. An invariant combination involves a single functional and is a ratio of outputs of that functional, such as a corner value divided by the Einstein–Hilbert coefficient.

This extends the homogeneity of section 2 to any finite number of functionals. Under (H2) it excludes a procedure in which two or more interpolating count functionals fix each other’s units.

4. The variance ratio

The mean of HwH_w is linear in ww and the variance is quadratic, so the ratio of the squared mean to the variance is invariant under w→μww\to\mu w and is a pure number attached to each exact weighting. Thinning shows that it has no upper bound.

The planar horizon

For the second moment we use the flat geometry that a large ball presents near its boundary: the horizon t+z=0t+z=0 in Minkowski space of dimension dd, with Σ={t=0}\Sigma=\{t=0\}, P={t<0, t+z<0}P=\{t<0,\ t+z<0\}, transverse coordinates y∈Rd−2y\in\mathbb R^{d-2}, and ρ=1\rho=1 (for ρ≠1\rho\neq1 lengths are measured in ℓρ\ell_\rho). For a box Ω\Omega of transverse area A\mathcal A let HwΩH_w^{\Omega} be the weighted count of the molecules whose lower point has y∈Ωy\in\Omega. In d=2d=2 there is no transverse direction, A=1\mathcal A=1, and HwΩH_w^\Omega is the count for the single horizon point. The mean is ⟨HwΩ⟩=adQw(αA)A\langle H_w^\Omega\rangle=a_dQ_w(\alpha_A)\mathcal A for any weighting, being the planar limit of the leading term in (2). We write v(w)=lim sup⁡A→∞Var HwΩ/Av(w)=\limsup_{\mathcal A\to\infty}{\rm Var}\,H_w^\Omega/\mathcal A (in d=2d=2, v(w)=Var HwΩv(w)={\rm Var}\,H_w^\Omega) and

rw=ad2Qw(αA)2v(w),r_w=\frac{a_d^2Q_w(\alpha_A)^2}{v(w)},

which is unchanged by w→μww\to\mu w. If one postulates that a count μHw\mu H_w with variance equal to its mean is the horizon entropy, the modular area law ⟨ΔKmod2⟩=⟨Kmod⟩=A/4G\langle\Delta K_{\rm mod}^2\rangle=\langle K_{\rm mod}\rangle=\mathcal A/4G discussed in [Verlinde–Zurek], then μ=adQw(αA)/v(w)\mu=a_dQ_w(\alpha_A)/v(w), the mean of μHw\mu H_w is rwAr_w\mathcal A, and G/ℓρd−2=1/(4rw)G/\ell_\rho^{d-2}=1/(4r_w). This is a postulate, and a classical sprinkling variance and a modular fluctuation are different objects. The question here is only whether rwr_w is a universal number.

Thinning

Let ηp\eta_p be the independent pp-thinning of a sprinkling η\eta, in which each point is kept with probability pp. A molecule survives with probability p2p^2, and each of the mm further points of its type is kept independently, so that E[Hw(ηp)∣η]=p2∑molecules(Ξpw)(m)\mathbb E[H_w(\eta_p)\mid\eta]=p^2\sum_{\rm molecules}(\Xi_pw)(m) with (Ξpw)(m)=∑k(mk)pk(1−p)m−kwk(\Xi_pw)(m)=\sum_k\binom mkp^k(1-p)^{m-k}w_k. The weights

w(p)=pαAΞpw,symbolQ(p)(α)=pαA−αQw(α),(5)w^{(p)}=p^{\alpha_A}\Xi_pw,\qquad\text{symbol}\quad Q^{(p)}(\alpha)=p^{\alpha_A-\alpha}Q_w(\alpha), \tag{5}

(Proposition 5 of horizon counts and the area law) have infinite support, the same zeros as QwQ_w and the same value at the area exponent, so they have the same mean as ww in the flat count and in the first-order response to uniform curvature, where every other exponent is a zero. By construction Hw(p)(η)=pαA−2 E[Hw(ηp)∣η]H_{w^{(p)}}(\eta)=p^{\alpha_A-2}\,\mathbb E[H_w(\eta_p)\mid\eta]. They differ from ww at exponents where Qw≠0Q_w\neq0, which occur at higher order in the curvature.

The variance of HwH_w is controlled by the add-one cost ΔxH=H(η+δx)−H(η)\Delta_xH=H(\eta+\delta_x)-H(\eta) through the Poincaré inequality for Poisson functionals, Var H≤E∫(ΔxH)2ρ dx{\rm Var}\,H\le\mathbb E\int(\Delta_xH)^2\rho\,dx [Last] (Theorem 8.3). The lemma shows that the right side is of order A\mathcal A.

Lemma 1 (finite variance constant). Let ww be a weighting with wm=0w_m=0 for m>mˉm>\bar m. In the planar model with ρ=1\rho=1,

Mw=sup⁡Ω1A∫E[(ΔxHwΩ)2] dx<∞,M_w=\sup_\Omega\frac1{\mathcal A}\int\mathbb E\big[(\Delta_xH_w^\Omega)^2\big]\,dx<\infty,

the supremum being over boxes Ω\Omega of any transverse area A\mathcal A (in d=2d=2 there is one count and A=1\mathcal A=1). Consequently Var HwΩ≤MwA{\rm Var}\,H_w^\Omega\le M_w\mathcal A and v(w)≤Mwv(w)\le M_w.

The difficulty is that the sum defining HwH_w runs over an unbounded region, so the add-one cost has to be shown to be localised near the horizon. The localisation comes from two facts: a molecule requires that the cone of the lower point reach outside PP before the slice, and a weighting of degree mˉ\bar m ignores lower points with more than mˉ+1\bar m+1 points in their future, which become exponentially rare with depth.

Proof. Put Z=max⁡m∣wm∣Z=\max_m\lvert w_m\rvert and, for a point at depth u=−t>0u=-t>0, V(u)=ωud/dV(u)=\omega u^d/d, the volume of its future below Σ\Sigma. The number of sprinkled points in that future is Poisson with mean V(u)V(u), so the probability that there are at most mˉ+1\bar m+1 of them is at most T(u)=(1+V(u))K+1e−V(u)T(u)=(1+V(u))^{K+1}e^{-V(u)}, using ∑j≤kVj/j!≤(1+V)k\sum_{j\le k}V^j/j!\le(1+V)^k. Let E={(t,z,y):t<0, ∣z∣<−t}\mathcal E=\{(t,z,y):t<0,\ \lvert z\rvert<-t\} be the rim. A point ζ∈P\zeta\in P at depth uu has z<uz<u, and its future below Σ\Sigma leaves PP exactly when z>−uz>-u, so only points of E\mathcal E can be lower points of molecules. A molecule of type mm has weight wm=0w_m=0 unless ∣F(ζ)∣≤mˉ+1\lvert F(\zeta)\rvert\le \bar m+1.

Adding xx with tx≥0t_x\ge0 changes nothing. For tx<0t_x<0 there are two effects. First, xx may be the lower point of new molecules; this contributes at most Z(mˉ+1)Z(\bar m+1) and requires x∈Ex\in\mathcal E and ∣F(x)∣≤mˉ+1\lvert F(x)\rvert\le \bar m+1. Second, xx may lie in the future of an existing lower point ζ∈P\zeta\in P, raising ∣F(ζ)∣\lvert F(\zeta)\rvert by one and the number of points of F(ζ)F(\zeta) outside PP by one if x∉Px\notin P. The change in the contribution of ζ\zeta is at most Z(2mˉ+3)Z(2\bar m+3), and it vanishes unless ∣F(ζ)∣≤mˉ+1\lvert F(\zeta)\rvert\le \bar m+1 and F(ζ)∪{x}⊄PF(\zeta)\cup\{x\}\not\subset P, which forces ζ∈E\zeta\in\mathcal E (for ζ∈P∖E\zeta\in P\setminus\mathcal E the whole future of ζ\zeta below Σ\Sigma lies in PP). Let YxY_x be the number of ζ∈η∩E\zeta\in\eta\cap\mathcal E with yζ∈Ωy_\zeta\in\Omega, ζ≺x\zeta\prec x and ∣F(ζ)∣≤mˉ+1\lvert F(\zeta)\rvert\le \bar m+1. Then ∣ΔxHwΩ∣≤Z(2mˉ+3) [1{x∈E, yx∈Ω, ∣F(x)∣≤mˉ+1}+Yx]\lvert\Delta_xH_w^\Omega\rvert\le Z(2\bar m+3)\,[\mathbf 1\{x\in\mathcal E,\ y_x\in\Omega,\ \lvert F(x)\rvert\le \bar m+1\}+Y_x] and

E(ΔxH)2≤2Z2(2mˉ+3)2[1{x∈E, yx∈Ω} T(ux)+EYx+EYx(Yx−1)].\mathbb E(\Delta_xH)^2\le2Z^2(2\bar m+3)^2\Big[\mathbf 1\{x\in\mathcal E,\ y_x\in\Omega\}\,T(u_x)+\mathbb E Y_x+\mathbb E Y_x(Y_x-1)\Big].

We integrate the three terms over xx. The first gives A∫0∞2u T(u) du\mathcal A\int_0^\infty2u\,T(u)\,du, since the rim has width 2u2u at depth uu. By the Mecke equation EYx≤∫ζ∈E, yζ∈Ω, ζ≺xT(uζ) dζ\mathbb E Y_x\le\int_{\zeta\in\mathcal E,\,y_\zeta\in\Omega,\,\zeta\prec x}T(u_\zeta)\,d\zeta, and integrating over xx (the volume of xx above ζ\zeta and below Σ\Sigma is V(uζ)V(u_\zeta)) gives A∫0∞2u T(u)V(u) du\mathcal A\int_0^\infty2u\,T(u)V(u)\,du. For the second factorial moment the Mecke equation gives a double integral over ζ1,ζ2∈E\zeta_1,\zeta_2\in\mathcal E with yζi∈Ωy_{\zeta_i}\in\Omega of the probability that both have at most mˉ+1\bar m+1 further points. The extra points ζ1,ζ2\zeta_1,\zeta_2 only increase the counts, and the probability of the intersection is at most T(u1)T(u2)\sqrt{T(u_1)T(u_2)}. Integrating over xx multiplies by the volume of the common future of ζ1,ζ2\zeta_1,\zeta_2 below Σ\Sigma, at most min⁡(V(u1),V(u2))\min(V(u_1),V(u_2)), and it is zero unless ∣y1−y2∣<u1+u2\lvert y_1-y_2\rvert<u_1+u_2, because a common future point qq has tq<0t_q<0 and so lies at spatial distance less than uiu_i from ζi\zeta_i. The integral over y2y_2 is thus at most ω⊥(u1+u2)d−2\omega_\perp(u_1+u_2)^{d-2} with ω⊥\omega_\perp the volume of the unit ball of Rd−2\mathbb R^{d-2} (equal to 11 for d=2d=2), and over z2z_2 at most 2u22u_2. The y1y_1 integral gives A\mathcal A. The result is

A∫0∞ ⁣ ⁣∫0∞4u1u2 ω⊥(u1+u2)d−2T(u1)T(u2) min⁡(V(u1),V(u2)) du1du2.\mathcal A\int_0^\infty\!\!\int_0^\infty4u_1u_2\,\omega_\perp(u_1+u_2)^{d-2}\sqrt{T(u_1)T(u_2)}\,\min(V(u_1),V(u_2))\,du_1du_2.

Every integrand is a polynomial in uu times e−ωud/de^{-\omega u^d/d} or e−ωud/(2d)e^{-\omega u^d/(2d)}, so all three integrals are finite and independent of Ω\Omega.

Proposition 3 (the variance ratio is unbounded). For every weighting ww of finite degree with Qw(αA)≠0Q_w(\alpha_A)\neq0 (in particular every exact weighting of finite degree) and every p∈(0,1]p\in(0,1],

v(w(p))≤Mw p2/d,hencerw(p)≥ad2Qw(αA)2Mw p−2/d⟶∞(p→0).v\big(w^{(p)}\big)\le M_w\,p^{2/d},\qquad\text{hence}\qquad r_{w^{(p)}}\ge\frac{a_d^2Q_w(\alpha_A)^2}{M_w}\,p^{-2/d}\longrightarrow\infty\quad(p\to0).

If ww is exact, the weightings w(p)w^{(p)} are exact weightings of infinite support, outside the finite-degree class of Proposition 2 and Lemma 1.

Averaging a count over thinnings keeps the mean and removes variance, because a point of the sprinkling influences the thinned average only when it is retained, which has probability pp, and the rescaled problem is again a sprinkling with a larger discreteness length.

Proof. Write Φ(η)=E[HwΩ(ηp)∣η]\Phi(\eta)=\mathbb E[H_w^\Omega(\eta_p)\mid\eta]. Adding a point xx to η\eta changes the thinned configuration only if xx is retained, so ΔxΦ=p E[ΔxHwΩ(ηp)∣η]\Delta_x\Phi=p\,\mathbb E[\Delta_xH_w^\Omega(\eta_p)\mid\eta], and by the conditional Jensen inequality E(ΔxΦ)2≤p2 E[(ΔxHwΩ(ηp))2]\mathbb E(\Delta_x\Phi)^2\le p^2\,\mathbb E[(\Delta_xH_w^\Omega(\eta_p))^2], where ηp\eta_p is a Poisson process of intensity pp. The Poincaré inequality gives Var Φ≤p2∫Ep[(ΔxHwΩ)2]dx{\rm Var}\,\Phi\le p^2\int\mathbb E_p[(\Delta_xH_w^\Omega)^2]dx. The slice and the planar horizon are invariant under the dilation x→p1/dxx\to p^{1/d}x and HwH_w depends only on the causal order, so a process of intensity pp and the box Ω\Omega become a process of intensity 11 and a box of area Ap(d−2)/d\mathcal Ap^{(d-2)/d}, with volume element scaled by p−1p^{-1}. By Lemma 1, which holds for every box, ∫Ep[(ΔxHwΩ)2]dx≤p−1⋅MwAp(d−2)/d=MwAp−2/d\int\mathbb E_p[(\Delta_xH_w^\Omega)^2]dx\le p^{-1}\cdot M_w\mathcal Ap^{(d-2)/d}=M_w\mathcal Ap^{-2/d}. So Var Φ≤MwAp2−2/d{\rm Var}\,\Phi\le M_w\mathcal Ap^{2-2/d}. Finally Hw(p)=pαA−2ΦH_{w^{(p)}}=p^{\alpha_A-2}\Phi and 2(αA−2)+2−2/d=2/d2(\alpha_A-2)+2-2/d=2/d. The mean of Hw(p)H_{w^{(p)}} equals that of HwH_w by (5), which gives the bound on rw(p)r_{w^{(p)}}.

Computed variances

In d=2d=2 we have αA=2\alpha_A=2, a2=13a_2=\tfrac13, and the exact weighting is w=(15,−13,4)w=(15,-13,4) with Qw(α)=(3−α)(5−2α)Q_w(\alpha)=(3-\alpha)(5-2\alpha). We computed Var Hw{\rm Var}\,H_w and the variance of the thinned weights (5), truncated at m<70m<70, by Monte Carlo over 4×1064\times10^6 sprinklings of the strip −5≤t≤0-5\le t\le0, ∣z∣≤10\lvert z\rvert\le10 with the horizon t+z=0t+z=0; the strip is deep enough that the mean of every row is 13\tfrac13 to within 2%2\%. The table gives the variance and the ratio rw=a22/Varr_w=a_2^2/{\rm Var}.

pp Var H{\rm Var}\,H rr factor over p=1p=1
11 304304 3.7×10−43.7\times10^{-4} 11
0.80.8 60.360.3 1.8×10−31.8\times10^{-3} 5.05.0
0.70.7 28.528.5 3.9×10−33.9\times10^{-3} 10.710.7
0.50.5 6.806.80 1.6×10−21.6\times10^{-2} 44.744.7

Proposition 3 guarantees growth of order p−1p^{-1} in d=2d=2 relative to a constant MwM_w, and the computed growth is faster, so the bound is not saturated. In d=4d=4 a Monte Carlo evaluation on a transverse torus of area 2525 and depth cut 2.42.4, with 4×1054\times10^5 sprinklings, gives Var Hw/A≈2.7×106{\rm Var}\,H_w/\mathcal A\approx2.7\times10^{6} for w=(210,−791,1268,−928,256)w=(210,-791,1268,-928,256), whose mean per unit area is a4=0.1732a_4=0.1732 (here Qw(αA)=1Q_w(\alpha_A)=1), hence rw≈1.1×10−8r_w\approx1.1\times10^{-8}.

So rwr_w has no universal value on exact weightings: it is a different pure number for each weighting and has no upper bound over weightings of infinite support. Under (H1) and (H2), the first and second moments of Poisson kinematics therefore give no pure number without a rule that selects one weighting.

5. Rigid Lorentz-invariant configurations

A random substrate is not the only possible source of a number. A finite configuration of vectors that is rigid, fixed up to a Lorentz transformation by rational conditions, has Lorentz invariants that are determined with no sprinkling involved. The question is which numbers these can be. Whether a constant of a sprinkling is of this kind is not addressed here.

Proposition 4 (algebraic Gram entries). Let C⊂(R3,1)L\mathcal C\subset(\mathbb R^{3,1})^L be a nonempty set defined by finitely many polynomial equations and inequalities with rational coefficients, and suppose that the Gram matrix Gr(v)=(⟨vi,vj⟩)ij\mathrm{Gr}(v)=(\langle v_i,v_j\rangle)_{ij} takes a single value G\mathcal G on C\mathcal C (for instance because C\mathcal C is a single orbit of the Lorentz group). The form is ⟨x,y⟩=x1y1+x2y2+x3y3−x4y4\langle x,y\rangle=x_1y_1+x_2y_2+x_3y_3-x_4y_4.

(a) Every entry of G\mathcal G is a real algebraic number, and so is every real number that is algebraic over the field generated by the entries.

(b) If vi,vjv_i,v_j are timelike unit vectors (⟨v,v⟩=−1\langle v,v\rangle=-1) in the same cone, the rapidity ξ\xi with cosh⁡ξ=−Gij\cosh\xi=-\mathcal G_{ij} is transcendental unless ξ=0\xi=0. If vi,vjv_i,v_j are spacelike unit vectors (⟨v,v⟩=1\langle v,v\rangle=1) with ∣Gij∣<1\lvert\mathcal G_{ij}\rvert<1, the angle χ∈(0,π)\chi\in(0,\pi) with cos⁡χ=Gij\cos\chi=\mathcal G_{ij} is transcendental.

Proof. (a) The set {Gr(v):v∈C}\{\mathrm{Gr}(v):v\in\mathcal C\} is the image of a semialgebraic set under a polynomial map with rational coefficients, hence is semialgebraic and defined over Q\mathbb Q (Tarski–Seidenberg). By hypothesis it is the single point G\mathcal G. The statement “this set is nonempty” holds over R\mathbb R, hence over the real closed field Ralg\mathbb R_{\rm alg} of real algebraic numbers by Tarski transfer, so the set contains a point with algebraic coordinates; that point is G\mathcal G. (b) For timelike vectors eξ=cosh⁡ξ+sinh⁡ξ=−Gij+Gij2−1e^{\xi}=\cosh\xi+\sinh\xi=-\mathcal G_{ij}+\sqrt{\mathcal G_{ij}^2-1} is algebraic by (a). If ξ≠0\xi\neq0 were algebraic, eξe^\xi would be transcendental by the Hermite–Lindemann theorem. For spacelike vectors, eiχ=Gij+i1−Gij2e^{i\chi}=\mathcal G_{ij}+i\sqrt{1-\mathcal G_{ij}^2} is algebraic, and the same theorem excludes an algebraic χ≠0\chi\neq0; χ=0\chi=0 is excluded by ∣Gij∣<1\lvert\mathcal G_{ij}\rvert<1.

Two timelike unit vectors with rational coordinates, v1=(0,0,0,1)v_1=(0,0,0,1) and v2=(34,0,0,54)v_2=(\tfrac34,0,0,\tfrac54), have ⟨v1,v2⟩=−54\langle v_1,v_2\rangle=-\tfrac54, so cosh⁡ξ=54\cosh\xi=\tfrac54, sinh⁡ξ=34\sinh\xi=\tfrac34 and ξ=ln⁡2\xi=\ln2. The pair is a single Lorentz orbit defined over Q\mathbb Q (its Gram matrix is the only datum), and its rapidity is transcendental by (b), as is every nonzero rapidity or angle covered by (b).

A richer family comes from circle packings. A disc on the celestial sphere is represented by a unit spacelike vector vi∈R3,1v_i\in\mathbb R^{3,1}, the normal of the hyperbolic plane bounded by its circle, oriented towards the disc. Two discs are tangent when ⟨vi,vj⟩=−1\langle v_i,v_j\rangle=-1 and disjoint when ⟨vi,vj⟩=−I\langle v_i,v_j\rangle=-I with the inversive distance I>1I>1, the hyperbolic cosine of the distance between the corresponding hyperbolic planes. By the Koebe–Andreev–Thurston theorem a triangulation T\mathcal T of the sphere has a circle packing with tangency graph T\mathcal T, unique up to Möbius maps, that is, up to the Lorentz group. The set C\mathcal C of packings with prescribed tangencies is defined by rational equations and inequalities, so Proposition 4(a) applies and the inversive distances of non-adjacent pairs are algebraic. The parameter count matches: LL discs have 3L3L parameters, a triangulation of the sphere has 3L−63L-6 edges and so imposes 3L−63L-6 contacts, and 6=dim⁡SO(3,1)6=\dim SO(3,1).

For a stacked triangulation (a vertex repeatedly inserted into a face) the inversive distances are integers. Start from four mutually tangent discs, whose Gram matrix 2⋅1−J2\cdot\mathbf 1-J (diagonal 11, off-diagonal −1-1) has eigenvalues (−2,2,2,2)(-2,2,2,2). The disc inserted in the face v1,v2,v3v_1,v_2,v_3, on the side away from the fourth disc v4v_4, is v∗=2(v1+v2+v3)−v4v_*=2(v_1+v_2+v_3)-v_4, for which ⟨v∗,v∗⟩=1\langle v_*,v_*\rangle=1, ⟨v∗,vi⟩=−1\langle v_*,v_i\rangle=-1 for i=1,2,3i=1,2,3 and ⟨v∗,v4⟩=−7\langle v_*,v_4\rangle=-7. All vectors are integer combinations of the initial basis, so all Gram entries are integers. A computer enumeration of all insertion sequences up to 1010 vertices, with the rule above applied in every face, finds no inversive distance below 77; this is an observation and is not proved for more vertices. For the bipyramid on an hh-gon the ring discs have angular radius π/h\pi/h and the two polar discs π/2−π/h\pi/2-\pi/h, and the inversive distance between the polar discs is

I=1+2tan⁡2πh=3−cos⁡(2π/h)1+cos⁡(2π/h).I=1+2\tan^2\frac\pi h=\frac{3-\cos(2\pi/h)}{1+\cos(2\pi/h)}.

This is a Möbius function of cos⁡(2π/h)\cos(2\pi/h) with rational coefficients, so Q(I)=Q(cos⁡2π/h)\mathbb Q(I)=\mathbb Q(\cos2\pi/h); for h=3,…,8h=3,\dots,8 the values are 77, 33, 11−45=2.055711-4\sqrt5=2.0557, 5/35/3, 1.46381.4638, 7−42=1.34317-4\sqrt2=1.3431.

The proposition makes the Gram data of a rigid configuration over Q\mathbb Q algebraic and, by (b), the nonzero rapidities and angles between its unit vectors transcendental. Volumes and other integrals of the configuration are not constrained by it. For a configuration that is rigid over a number field other than Q\mathbb Q the invariants lie in that field. A single configuration is one orbit of the Lorentz group, on which an average is not normalisable, and the proposition says nothing about the Poisson sprinkling, which is not a rigid configuration. The relation to exact discrete Lorentz symmetry is in lattices with an arithmetic Lorentz group and Lorentz-invariant point sets: what they can and cannot carry.

6. The cosmological constant and the volume degree of the horizon count

A cosmological constant would appear as a term of the count proportional to a volume. Let ℓ\ell be the size of the ball, so that ωℓn\omega\ell^n is the volume of BB, and let a term of the expected count carry a curvature factor of dimension DD (a power of inverse length). Its area degree is ℓd−2+D\ell^{d-2+D}. The ball-volume degree is ℓd−1+D\ell^{d-1+D}, and the spacetime-volume degree is ℓd+D\ell^{d+D}. At D=0D=0 they are the terms proportional to the area of ∂B\partial B, to the volume of BB, and to the volume of its domain of dependence, and the last is the form of a cosmological-constant term.

Theorem 1 (no volume degree). Let d≥3d\ge3 and n=d−1n=d-1. Take the conformally static metric g=W(t)2/d(−dt2+γA)g=W(t)^{2/d}(-dt^2+\gamma_A), a time-dependent conformal factor times a static metric, with γA\gamma_A the round metric of radius AA on the nn-sphere, W(t)=1+∑k≥1WktkW(t)=1+\sum_{k\ge1}W_kt^k, Σ={t=0}\Sigma=\{t=0\}, and BB a geodesic ball in Σ\Sigma of fixed volume ωℓn\omega\ell^n. Expand the expected weighted horizon count ⟨Hw⟩\langle H_w\rangle as a formal power series in A−2A^{-2} and the WkW_k; a term of order A−2νWk1⋯WkjA^{-2\nu}W_{k_1}\cdots W_{k_j} has curvature dimension D=2ν+k1+⋯+kjD=2\nu+k_1+\dots+k_j. For every finite weighting ww, every term of curvature dimension DD is a multiple of ℓe\ell^e with e≤d−2+De\le d-2+D. In particular there is no term of ball-volume or spacetime-volume degree, at any order.

The expansion is that of horizon counts and the area law, from which the proof takes its input: by its Lemma 1,

⟨Hw⟩=∫0∞dτ W(−τ) ϕ(V(τ)) U(τ),U(τ)=∫0τds W(s−τ) cap(s)[cap(r0+τ)−cap(r0+τ−s)],\langle H_w\rangle=\int_0^\infty d\tau\,W(-\tau)\,\phi\big(V(\tau)\big)\,U(\tau),\qquad U(\tau)=\int_0^\tau ds\,W(s-\tau)\,{\rm cap}(s)\big[{\rm cap}(r_0+\tau)-{\rm cap}(r_0+\tau-s)\big],

where ϕ(v)=e−v∑mwmvm/m!\phi(v)=e^{-v}\sum_mw_mv^m/m! is the kernel of the weighting. The factor W(−τ)W(-\tau) is the conformal volume factor at depth τ\tau below Σ\Sigma, and V(τ)V(\tau) is the volume of the future of a point at that depth, so ϕ(V(τ))\phi(V(\tau)) is the weight of a lower point after averaging over the further points of its type. The function U(τ)U(\tau) is the volume of pairs, the lower point in the slice of PP at depth τ\tau and the upper point in its future outside PP: cap(r){\rm cap}(r) is the γA\gamma_A-volume of a geodesic ball of radius rr, and r0r_0 is the radius of BB. The size ℓ\ell enters only through r0r_0 inside the bracket.

Proof. The cap volume is cap(r)=∑νϖνA−2νrn+2ν{\rm cap}(r)=\sum_\nu\varpi_\nu A^{-2\nu}r^{n+2\nu} with ϖ0=ω\varpi_0=\omega, and fixing the volume of BB gives r0=ℓ ψ(ℓ2/A2)r_0=\ell\,\psi(\ell^2/A^2) with ψ(0)=1\psi(0)=1. The bracket expands as ∑i≥1cap(i)(r0)[τi−(τ−s)i]/i!\sum_{i\ge1}{\rm cap}^{(i)}(r_0)[\tau^i-(\tau-s)^i]/i!, with no term i=0i=0, and the part of order A−2νcA^{-2\nu_c} of cap(i)(r0){\rm cap}^{(i)}(r_0) is a constant times ℓ n+2νc−i\ell^{\,n+2\nu_c-i}. All other factors are independent of ℓ\ell and carry non-negative powers of A−2A^{-2}, so in a term of order A−2νA^{-2\nu} of the product the cap factor has νc≤ν\nu_c\le\nu, and its exponent satisfies e=n+2νc−i≤n−1+2νe=n+2\nu_c-i\le n-1+2\nu. A term of order A−2νA^{-2\nu} has D≥2νD\ge2\nu, so e≤n−1+2ν=d−2+2ν≤d−2+De\le n-1+2\nu=d-2+2\nu\le d-2+D.

The proof uses only the form of the reduction formula, so the conclusion holds for every finite weighting. Outside the conformally static class the degree bound is a conjecture; the rim localisation of Lemma 1 (a molecule exists only if its lower point lies within its own depth of the horizon) is the supporting observation.

The mean of the horizon count therefore contains no term that could play the role of a cosmological constant, for every finite weighting. A cosmological constant enters the count only through the curvature of the background, inside the area-degree response (the response to RuuR_{uu} and to the area deficit of horizon counts and the area law), and that response matters for balls of the size of the curvature radius.

The fluctuation of the count is a different matter. For a region D\mathcal D let NDN_{\mathcal D} be the number of points in D\mathcal D.

Proposition 5 (covariance with the number of points). For any integrable functional Ψ\Psi of the sprinkling and any region D\mathcal D,

Cov(Ψ,ND)=ρ∫DE[ΔxΨ] dx.{\rm Cov}(\Psi,N_{\mathcal D})=\rho\int_{\mathcal D}\mathbb E[\Delta_x\Psi]\,dx.

If ΔxΨ=0\Delta_x\Psi=0 outside D\mathcal D, then Cov(Ψ,ND)=ρ ∂ρEρΨ{\rm Cov}(\Psi,N_{\mathcal D})=\rho\,\partial_\rho\mathbb E_\rho\Psi. For an exact weighting in dd dimensions, EHw∝ρ(d−2)/d\mathbb E H_w\propto\rho^{(d-2)/d}, and for the region DU={−U<t<0, ∣z∣<2U, y∈ΩU}\mathcal D_U=\{-U<t<0,\ \lvert z\rvert<2U,\ y\in\Omega_U\} of the planar model of section 4, where ΩU\Omega_U is the box Ω\Omega with a collar of width UU, Cov(HwΩ,NDU)=d−2d EHwΩ{\rm Cov}(H_w^\Omega,N_{\mathcal D_U})=\tfrac{d-2}d\,\mathbb E H_w^\Omega up to an error of at most A\mathcal A times a polynomial in UU times e−ωUd/de^{-\omega U^d/d} (lengths in units of ℓρ\ell_\rho; see the proof). The regression coefficient of HwΩH_w^\Omega on NDUN_{\mathcal D_U} is then d−2d EHwΩ/(ρ∣DU∣)\frac{d-2}d\,\mathbb E H_w^\Omega/(\rho\lvert\mathcal D_U\rvert). In particular HwΩH_w^\Omega and NDUN_{\mathcal D_U} are uncorrelated in d=2d=2 up to that error.

Proof. By the Mecke equation, E[Ψ ND]=E∫DΨ η(dx)=ρ∫DE[Ψ(η+δx)]dx=ρ∣D∣ EΨ+ρ∫DE[ΔxΨ]dx\mathbb E[\Psi\,N_{\mathcal D}]=\mathbb E\int_{\mathcal D}\Psi\,\eta(dx)=\rho\int_{\mathcal D}\mathbb E[\Psi(\eta+\delta_x)]dx=\rho\lvert\mathcal D\rvert\,\mathbb E \Psi+\rho\int_{\mathcal D}\mathbb E[\Delta_x\Psi]dx, and END=ρ∣D∣\mathbb E N_{\mathcal D}=\rho\lvert\mathcal D\rvert. For the second statement, a Poisson process of intensity ρ+ϵ\rho+\epsilon is the sum of independent processes of intensities ρ\rho and ϵ\epsilon; adding the second to the first adds a point at xx with probability ϵ dx\epsilon\,dx to first order, so ∂ρEρΨ=∫E[ΔxΨ]dx\partial_\rho\mathbb E_\rho\Psi=\int\mathbb E[\Delta_x\Psi]dx. When ΔxΨ\Delta_x\Psi vanishes outside D\mathcal D this equals ∫DE[ΔxΨ]dx\int_{\mathcal D}\mathbb E[\Delta_x\Psi]dx. For the horizon count the dependence region is not bounded, and we bound the first moment outside DU\mathcal D_U by the pointwise bound of Lemma 1, ∣ΔxHwΩ∣≤Z(2mˉ+3)[1{x∈E, yx∈Ω, ∣F(x)∣≤mˉ+1}+Yx]\lvert\Delta_xH_w^\Omega\rvert\le Z(2\bar m+3)[\mathbf 1\{x\in\mathcal E,\ y_x\in\Omega,\ \lvert F(x)\rvert\le \bar m+1\}+Y_x]. A point x∈Ex\in\mathcal E with yx∈Ωy_x\in\Omega lies in DU\mathcal D_U if its depth is at most UU. A point xx above a lower point ζ\zeta of depth uζ≤Uu_\zeta\le U lies in DU\mathcal D_U too, since xx is at depth less than uζu_\zeta and at spatial distance less than uζu_\zeta from ζ\zeta. The integral of the bound over x∉DUx\notin\mathcal D_U is therefore at most the tails A∫U∞2u T(u) du\mathcal A\int_U^\infty2u\,T(u)\,du and A∫U∞2u T(u)V(u) du\mathcal A\int_U^\infty2u\,T(u)V(u)\,du of the first two integrals in the proof of Lemma 1, which are a polynomial in UU times e−ωUd/de^{-\omega U^d/d}.

By Lemma 1, Var HwΩ≤MwAρ(d−2)/d{\rm Var}\,H_w^\Omega\le M_w\mathcal A\rho^{(d-2)/d} (with the ρ\rho-scaling of the proof of Proposition 3). The Cauchy–Schwarz inequality gives Var HwΩ≥Cov(HwΩ,NDU)2/Var NDU=(d−2dEHwΩ)2/(ρ∣DU∣){\rm Var}\,H_w^\Omega\ge{\rm Cov}(H_w^\Omega,N_{\mathcal D_U})^2/{\rm Var}\,N_{\mathcal D_U}=\big(\tfrac{d-2}d\mathbb E H_w^\Omega\big)^2/(\rho\lvert\mathcal D_U\rvert) for the region DU\mathcal D_U, whose volume is 4U2AU4U^2\mathcal A_U with AU\mathcal A_U the transverse area of ΩU\Omega_U, of order AU2\mathcal AU^2 for A≳Ud−2\mathcal A\gtrsim U^{d-2} in units of ℓρ\ell_\rho, which is a lower bound of order A/U2\mathcal A/U^2 in those units. The standard deviation of the count is therefore of order the square root of the area.

Comparison with the observed vacuum energy density

The comparison needs a rule, which we state as (H3): a fluctuating count XX plays the role that the number of points NN plays in the fluctuating cosmological constant of [Ahmed et al.], with δΛ∼ΔX/V4\delta\Lambda\sim\Delta X/V_4, where ΔX\Delta X is the standard deviation of XX and V4V_4 the four-volume. For X=NX=N this gives δΛ∼N−1/2\delta\Lambda\sim N^{-1/2} in units of ℓρ−2\ell_\rho^{-2} (setting ℓρ=ℓp\ell_\rho=\ell_p; the estimates of this section drop factors of order one, among them the 8π8\pi in ℓp2=8πG\ell_p^2=8\pi G), of the order of the observed value when the Hubble four-volume contains N∼RH4N\sim R_H^4 points.

For X=HwX=H_w we keep ℓρ=ℓp\ell_\rho=\ell_p, RH=c/H0≈8×1060 ℓpR_H=c/H_0\approx8\times10^{60}\,\ell_p for H0≈68H_0\approx68 km s−1^{-1} Mpc−1^{-1} [DESI], V4∼RH4V_4\sim R_H^4, and normalise HwH_w by Qw(αA)=1Q_w(\alpha_A)=1 (the convention of (H2), with the unit of the count taken as one in these units), so that its mean a4Aa_4\mathcal A is of the order of the horizon area RH2R_H^2 in units of ℓρ2\ell_\rho^2. A count with Poisson-like fluctuations, ΔX=⟨X⟩1/2∼RH\Delta X=\langle X\rangle^{1/2}\sim R_H, would give δΛ∼RH−3\delta\Lambda\sim R_H^{-3}, a fraction ℓp/RH≈10−61\ell_p/R_H\approx10^{-61} of Λobs∼RH−2\Lambda_{\rm obs}\sim R_H^{-2}. For the four-dimensional exact weights the variance per unit area is 2.7×1062.7\times10^6 (section 4), so the standard deviation exceeds ⟨Hw⟩1/2\langle H_w\rangle^{1/2} by the factor (a4/rw)1/2≈4×103(a_4/r_w)^{1/2}\approx4\times10^3, and with A∼RH2\mathcal A\sim R_H^2 it is ΔX≈1.6×103RH\Delta X\approx1.6\times10^3R_H. The fraction becomes of order 10−5810^{-58} (the leading digit depends on order-one conventions, here A=RH2\mathcal A=R_H^2).

The component of HwH_w along the number of points is smaller still. Take for D\mathcal D the Hubble four-volume, so that Var ND=N∼RH4{\rm Var}\,N_{\mathcal D}=N\sim R_H^4. By Proposition 5 the covariance is of order EHw∼RH2\mathbb E H_w\sim R_H^2 (it equals 12EHw\tfrac12\mathbb E H_w in d=4d=4 when D\mathcal D contains the region on which HwH_w depends). The part of HwH_w that NDN_{\mathcal D} predicts linearly then has standard deviation of order RH2/N1/2∼1R_H^2/N^{1/2}\sim1 in counts, smaller by the factor ℓp/RH\ell_p/R_H than the Poisson-like value RHR_H, and through it δΛ∼V4−1\delta\Lambda\sim V_4^{-1} is a fraction of order (ℓp/RH)2∼10−122(\ell_p/R_H)^2\sim10^{-122} of Λobs\Lambda_{\rm obs}. In each case the ratio to the observed value is far below one, because the horizon fluctuation grows with the area and not with the volume. The estimate rests on (H3) and on ℓρ=ℓp\ell_\rho=\ell_p; what is proved is Theorem 1 and the area bounds on the variance.

7. Finite-degree variance and balls of curvature size

The infimum of vv over exact weightings of degree at most mˉ\bar m, at fixed normalisation Qw(αA)=1Q_w(\alpha_A)=1, is non-increasing in mˉ\bar m since the families are nested, and Proposition 3 shows that the infimum over exact weightings of infinite support is zero. Whether the infimum over finite degree tends to zero or to a positive limit as mˉ→∞\bar m\to\infty is not known, and a lower bound on vv that is uniform in the degree would settle it. A positive limit would still be a number attached to a family of weightings, available as a constant of the sprinkling only once a rule selects the weighting.

Theorem 1 concerns the formal expansion in the curvature. For balls comparable to the curvature radius, evaluating the reduction formula of section 6 without expanding in A−2A^{-2} would show whether the degree bound persists.

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